4,190,000 to 4,140,000 acres. The estimated yield of corn has in the same period gone down (by quinquennial averages) from 97 to 58 million bushels in the case of wheat; from 82 to 66 million bushels in the case of barley; and the yield of oats has risen from 147 to 151 million bushels. The imports have in the same period gone up steadily and rapidly; while the amount remaining for home consumption per head of population has steadily diminished. The fall in the case of wheat amounts to an equivalent of 24 lb. bread per annum. In the above maize has not been included. Somewhat similar results follow an examination of the meat-supplies of the country. The consumption of beef is estimated to have increased from 680,000 to 750,000 tons; of mutton there has been a decrease from 420,000 to 390,000 tons; while pig meats have remained stationary at about 290,000 tons. In addition to these, imported meats have increased enormously. The consumption per head of all kinds of meats has also greatly increased. The yield of home-produced butter and cheese has not increased. Measured by the consumption per head, the butter (including margarine) consumed has increased from 11 lbs. to nearly 16 lbs. per annum, while the cheese has remained quite stationary at 133 lb. per annum. Further tabies are given relating to coal. The first compares the growth of the production of the principal coal-countries with the total world's production. The second compares the production and consumption, total and per head of population, of coal from 1872 to 1901. The third gives an analysis of coal consumption for the principal British industries. Further tables relating to pig iron and wool are also given, and the whole is further illustrated by charts, MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 14. The following Papers were read : 1. The Potentialities of Applied Science in a Garden City. The author drew attention to the economical and other advantages to be derived from careful coalition of the various branches of science involved in the building up of a modern city, in the case of such being reared upon terra natura, and entirely unhampered by considerations of prior design or demolition. He pointed out that the epoch at which we have now arrived in these islands, in regard to the existence and development of large towns, had led to the almost entire abandonment of hope that any scheme compassing the much needed 'return to the land' could ever now be consummated; and announced that, not only had such a scheme at length been evolved, but that, in a practicable and workable form, it is at once to be put to experimental test upon a scale amply sufficient to demonstrate its successful working, viz. in a community of from 25,000 to 30,000 inhabitants. He attributed the inception and successful maturation of the scheme to Mr. Ebenezer Howard. The basis upon which it was founded was the assumption that, given the freehold acquisition of a site of sufficient extent and at moderate cost, vested in trustees in the interests of the future community, the financial success of the undertaking can be assured-no matter to what magnitude it may eventually be carried by the reservation for the benefit of the community of the increment in terrestrial value of such site due to the emplacement thereon of a city laid out upon such lines that overcrowding is an impossibility, providing for the allotment per capita of such an extent of ground area as to entitle the creation to the cognomen of a 'Garden City.' The coalition of public works, in the author's opinion, was prepollent to produce not only economic results, but an hygienic city free from smoke and fog, To the latter end he advocated the entire suppression of the consumption of solid fuel and the substitution of heating by means of a cheap non-illuminating gas, both for domestic fires and industrial processes, as well as gas produced by the Mond process for motive power. To enable the municipality to supply heat, light, and motive power at the cheapest rate, the production of both gas and electricity should be vested in it, together with water-supply and the supply of electricity for public locomotion. The necessity for the almost incessant breaking up of the streets, pavements, and roadways of large towns in connection with the various supplies and services has become a serious hindrance to traffic and commerce, and in this regard the author advocated the universal employment of subways beneath the side-walks, and illustrated one of his design, which, whilst making provision for the running of all the services, such as gas, water, electric light, telegraphs, telephones, &c., and their inspection, maintenance, and repair from below, also provided a means for the removal of sludge without the necessity for the employment of mud-carts. In connection with this and the watering and scavengering of urban thorough. fares, the author advocated and explained a new form of road section-styled an 'invert road-in which the crown' is discarded in favour of two slightly inclined planes sloping from the kerbs of the side-walks and meeting in a continuous grid at the centre of the roadway. Such a contour, he contended, possessed many advantages, among them that the use of watercarts would be rendered unnecessary by the employment in connection with them of hydraulic kerbs. In connection with the sanitation of the city, the author emphasised the importance of devising a means of house-refuse removal, in which the bins should not be emptied into carts in the public highways, and explained his system, in which the lids are not lifted from the time the bins are collected from the houses until they are delivered at the destructor, the transportation being effected by means of a specially constructed cellular motor-waggon. 6 2. The First Garden City: its Economic Results. By HAROLD E. MOORE, F.S.I. Many who consider favourably the proposals of Mr. Howard and other speakers on Garden Cities' are of opinion that the economic difficulties in their foundation are insurmountable. This question is now considered, as a site has been selected for the first of such cities. The site chosen, which will be in the possession of the Garden City Company from Michaelmas, comprises about 4,000 acres coming to within one mile of the town of Hitchin and about thirty-six miles from London. The company will doubtless immediately erect a railway station in the centre of the estate, two and a half miles from Hitchin; make roads, giving access to that station; erect and fit a brickworks; open a chalk-pit; equip gravel-pits; and do other work which will render available the natural resources of the estate. The total cost will then probably be about 180,000l. This will be an average of about 301. an acre for the agricultural land, excluding the buildings and accommodation land at a reasonable value. Two different courses of procedure will then be possible. The first method is to lay out a model town with avenues and parks and spend large capital in engineering works and buildings. It is suggested that this procedure would result in failure. It would necessitate a large unproductive capital expenditure, cause annual expense in maintenance, involve serious financial risks, and reduce the present agricultural rental and value. The second method would be to attract residents on small areas by offering sites with existing frontages at a rent charge, and also to encourage manufacturers to take land by giving them sites on that part of the estate suitable for manufacturing purposes on condition that they took further areas at a rent-charge for the erection of cottages for their workpeople. These cottages to be erected by the manufacturer, the intending occupier, or by builders who conform to the stipulated Garden City' regulations. It is suggested that this method will confer all the advantages claimed for 'Garden Cities' with satisfactory economic results. The rent-charge, even in respect of the most outlying land, would reasonably be not less than double the agricultural rental, while for building sites the rent-charge would be many times larger. The increased value secured by this greater rental without risk might then soon justify expenditure of capital on various town developments and improvements. 3. Physical Degeneration and the Poverty Line. By Mrs. H. BOSANQUET. The interest which has been aroused in the physical condition of the people has given rise to alarming statements as to the extent and cause of physical degeneration. It is popularly assumed that one-third of the population is too poor to maintain itself in physical efficiency, and it is supposed that this assumption is justified by the investigations of Mr. Booth and Mr. Rowntree. An examination of their work, however, shows that their results apply only to London and York, and that, prima facie, there is a great discrepancy between their figures. This may be set out as follows: Mr. Booth People with incomes at the rate of 21s. or less for a moderate family, 30 per cent. of the population. Mr. Rowntree: People with incomes at the rate of 21s. 8d. or less for a moderate family, 9.91 of the population. It appears, further, that Mr. Rowntree brings up his numbers classed below the poverty line to 27.84 per cent. by adding 17.93 per cent. who are living in apparent poverty, although their incomes are sufficient to raise them above it. It seems probable that Mr. Booth's 30 per cent. also includes a large majority whose condition is not due to want of money. With reference to physical degeneration the evidence from recruiting statistics is hardly enough to prove degeneration from any standard previously attained considering the abnormal circumstances under which recruiting has recently been carried on, while much of the evidence before the Scottish Commission goes to show a decided improvement. Nevertheless many children never attain their proper development, and are greatly in want of better care and feeding. These are mainly the children living in secondary (i.e. apparent) poverty whose parents have the means to nurture them properly, but are too ignorant or too careless to do so. The evil, being not mainly due to poverty, cannot be met by subsidising the parents' earnings; nor would school feeding, whether free or paid for, be sufficient to meet all the needs of the children. They can only be met ultimately by educating women to a more adequate fulfilment of their duties as wives and mothers, and meanwhile by dealing with neglected children individually. 4. A Comparison of Exports to the United States, European Protective States, and our Colonies. By B. ELLINGER. This paper is an endeavour to answer the following questions put by Mr. Chamberlain at a recent meeting of the Constitutional Club: Is it a fact that the exports of our manufactured goods to our Colonies already exceed the total exports of our manufactured goods to the protected States of Europe and the United States? In the second place is it a fact that our exports to those protected countries are continually and of recent years rapidly decreasing in quantity, deteriorating in their profitable character ? In order to make comparisons I have divided the last twenty years into periods of five years, and taken the average annual export over each such period. I have excluded Turkey and Holland as not being protected States, and I have excluded Hong Kong and Singapore from our Colonies as being purely distributing centres. On the other hand I have included with our Colonies all British possessions except British India and Ceylon, figures for which are separately stated. Our exports of manufactured goods to European protected States and the United States over 1898-1902 averaged annually 30,000,000l. more than our exports to our Colonies, being 84,000,000l. against 54,000,000l. It is necessary to add our exports to India and Ceylon, 32,000,000l., to bring the total up to that of our exports to the United States and European protected States. Our exports of manufactured goods to the United States have largely decreased in the last twenty years, from an average of 24,800,0007. in the years 1883-87 to an average of 17,700,0007. in the years 1898-1902, the whole decrease being nearly accounted for by decrease in woollen goods and metals. Our exports of manufactured goods to European protected States show a substantial increase over the same period of 21 per cent., while France shows a loss of 1,500,000l., Germany shows an increase of 5,000,000l., and our trade to Russia has doubled itself from 3,800,000l. to 7,500,0007., which is a larger figure than we can show for our average annual export to Canada over the same period, as is also the case with our shipments of 8,000,0001. manufactured goods to Belgium. Our export trade to British India has only increased 3 per cent. in the period under review. Our exports of manufactured goods to all Crown Colonies (except Hong Kong and Singapore), and all British possessions (except India and Ceylon) have increased by 2,000,000l., and still just fall short of our exports to Russia. Our trade to Cape Colony and Natal has increased enormously, from 2,900,000%. to 10,500,0007. New Zealand shows an increase of 1,500,0007. Australia has remained stationary, and Canada, in spite of the preferential tariff which was in operation during the whole period 1898-1902, shows a loss of 100,0007. compared with the figures of fifteen to twenty years ago. 5. The Commercial Relations between Canada and the United Kingdom. By F. BRADSHAW. After an historical sketch of the relations between Canada and U.S.A., and Canada and the United Kingdom, which led to the preferential tariff of 1897, the paper attempts to indicate why the preference was given-as an alternative to the annexation of Canada to U.S.A.-and the value of the preference. From 1890 onwards the rush to Manitoba and the North-West Territories can be traced. Canada's prosperity depends on their prosperity, and her manufacturing population cannot consume their products. Possible markets are Great Britain and U.S.A. The latter country is fast reaching a stage when growth of population must prevent it from remaining a source of our wheat supply, and the price of American wheat will rise until even a tariff of 25 cents a bushel cannot keep out Canadian wheat. The St. Lawrence navigation is the crux of the question. The canals could be easily improved till the cost of transporting a bushel of wheat from Port Arthur to Liverpool is only 12 cents the bushel of 60 lb. If a preference to Canadian wheat is given, the improvement will take place before the American demand arises. If the American demand arises first, the improvement will never take place, as the American market will be the more profitable. Hence the price of wheat here will rise and remain high. Probably a 28., or even a 48., duty on foreign wheat would not raise the price in England, as the margin of profit retained by the American grower is too large, and he would fear to face the competition of Canadian wheat. The preference is valuable to us because it has checked the decline in British exports to Canada, and has actually increased their value. The United States have apparently secured a larger increase than we have since 1897; but the increase is in goods, which, being natural products or raw materials for manufactures, do not pay duty: 50 per cent. of U.S.A. imports into Canada are duty free, as compared with 29 per cent. of imports from Great Britain. As to duty-paying goods, $3,000,000 represents roughly the value of the preference to Great Britain in 1902 if we consider the amount of duty paid by Great Britain and U.S.A. respectively in relation to the value of the total duty-paying imports. The increase in the value of British exports to Canada since 1898 has been 11.5 per cent., and this relates to goods under the preferential tariff only. Although the United States have an excess of $25,000,000 over us in exports to Canada, yet this can be accounted for almost to the last dollar by articles in which we do not compete to any great extent, because we cannot. But to our shame be it said that $13,000,000 represents the excess of iron and steel exports, and yet our figures for 1902 are an increase of 100 per cent. on those of 1901. The preference chiefly affects textiles, and here, despite the Dingley tariff, we beat the Americans easily. We have driven them out of the woollen market, and even in cottons we have an overwhelming preponderance. Silk and linen goods tell the same tale. In one market at least we have beaten a protectionist nation, but we have opposed to the Dingley tariff, not free imports, but a preference of 33 per cent. If the preference is withdrawn we cannot hope to retain our advantage, or even a footing, in the Canadian market. 6. Some Economic Aspects of the English Colour Industries. By F. EVERSHED. The exceptional progress of Germany in the coal-tar industries, much more rapid than her general industrial progress, has given the impression that the English aniline-dye trade is not only much smaller and less profitable, both of which are true, but is actually disappearing. The statement is sometimes enlarged from dyes to colour, and even to chemicals generally. The facts are that our annual export of chemicals increased from 7,639,000/ in 1880-1884 to 8,829,000l. in 1897-1901 and 9,587,000l. in 1902. Germany's export is greater, but only in proportion to her larger population. Her annual rate of increase, however, is greater than ours. Our annual export of painters' colours and materials increased from 1,256,000l. in 1880-1884 to 1,836,000l. in 1897-1901. The figures for coal-tar dyes, averaging 231,000l. in 1882-1902, show a decline since the beginning of the period, but the trade has apparently been stationary in value for the last five years. The figures, however, are untrustworthy owing to many sources of error. Translated from values to quantities they show a large increase. Prices have fallen 40 per cent. in the last decade. The industry apparently needs a higher standard of engineering, chemical, and business ability, and in some factories attempts are being made to supply this. The German annual export has grown from 2,500,000l. in 1882-1888 to over 4,000,000l. in 1896-1902. The question of the amount of the loss we have sustained by allowing Germany to appropriate the bulk of the coal-tar industries, estimated to produce 10,000,000l. annually, is discussed. The loss must be placed at a fraction of that sum, representing the difference between it and the annual value now being produced by the English labour and capital which would have been diverted to the production of dyes, scents, and medicines. Similarly the annual loss to India by the threatened destruction of her indigo industry by Germany will be the difference between the value of Indian indigo, 3,000,0007, and the value of the sugar and oil which will be produced on the same lands with the same labour. The loss in this case, as in the other, is much less than is commonly supposed. In other cases where certain industries are appropriated by foreign countries there need be no loss at all, since employment and profit do not depend on a multiplicity of different occupations, but on the most efficient employment of a limited quantity of capital and skill, to obtain the highest returns by exchange in the world's market. |