Imports and Exports.-The imports show also a considerable increase. The following are the quantities of coals in bolls of 5 cwt. each : : And during the last year there were brought by railway 18,298 tons of Scotch coals Timber.-The quantities of timber in loads of fifty cubic feet each were as follow: I may here mention that the exports of our home timber has so much increased as to exceed considerably our imports. It was after 1840 that our great forests began to be cut down, and the demand for pit-props and railway sleepers has added much to the value of our home timber. Wheat. The number of quarters of wheat imported was 1840. 14,841 1840. 45,675 1850. 27,003 Oats, Barley, &c.-While our exports of oats, &c. were in 1850. 48,566 1858. 31,446 1858. 76,158 thus showing that we export more than double the quantity of grain than we import. Besides the following quantities of meal, in bolls of 140 lbs : Meal: 1840. 6422 1850. 4300 Cattle, &c.-The number of cattle exported by sea was in 1850. 9940 1858. 69,652 bolls. 1858. 1858. 5652 In the same year, 1858, there were sent by railway 13,674; so that last year the whole cattle sent from this quarter principally to the London market, was 19,326, besides dead meat amounting to 5226 tons. The number of sheep and lambs exported last year by sea and railway, was upwards of 15,000, and the value of the whole cattle, alive and dead, sent from this quarter, cannot be less than from £500,000 to £600,000 annually. I may here mention that the whole imports and exports of the Scottish Northeastern Railway for the year ending 31st August 1858, were, Imports. besides coal and live stock, which are mentioned above. Exports. 26,567 tons, Granite. The subject of our celebrated granite, in all its departments-quarrying, building, causewaying, and polishing-is to form the subject of a separate paper by Mr. Gibb, a gentleman in every way qualified to do it justice. I shall therefore merely mention the exports for 1840. 25,557 1850. 30,385 1858. 32,422 tons. These were principally causeway-stones for London; and I may add that the average value laid down in London is about 20s. per ton, of which 6s. may be stated as freight, 28. as cartage from the quarries to the harbour, and the remainder (12s.) as wages of quarrymen and rent of quarries. Salmon. The only other subject I have time to mention is our Salmon Trade; and I trust that some one connected with the fishing may be induced to give a paper upon it. It is one of deep interest and importance. I regret that I cannot give even a complete statement of the exports, as the Railway does not keep a separate return of the number of boxes sent by them. The harbour affords the following in barrel bulk of 112 lbs. each :- This last year is far from being complete, owing to a large quantity having been sent by railway of which no return can be obtained. But still it is obvious that this valuable fish is deserting our coasts and rivers, as centuries ago we exported in some years a much larger quantity than we now export; and in 1816, which was a favourable year, no less than 15,000 boxes, containing each about 100 lbs., left the harbour. It was the opinion of the late Sir Walter Scott that our agricultural and commercial improvements would gradually tend to drive them from our shores. On the Progress of Public Opinion with respect to the Evils produced by the Traffic in Intoxicating Drink, as at present regulated by Law. By the Rev. W. CAINE, A.M. He advocated the Permissive Bill, which proposed to give the power to suppress the traffic if two-thirds of the community were in its favour. Canvasses had been made in the various towns of England, Ireland, and Scotland, with the most favourable results to the object advocated. The lower classes manifested the greatest interest in this matter, and evidently showed their anxiety to be freed from the temptations by which they were surrounded. At the districts which have been canvassed, it has been found that the poor are in favour, while the rich oppose it. Various towns have been canvassed, such as Huddersfield in favour, 387 Parliamentary Voters; 609 Municipal Voters. Grimsby do. do. The municipal electors, were they to do their duty, might have considerable power at the elections in using their influence in favour of the Permissive Bill. The liquor traffic has been brought before the public during the last few years in many ways-the Permissive Bill of the United Kingdom Alliance receiving great prominence; and the audiences have ever given their decided approval of the Bill: 2000 ministers in Britain have signed a document, deploring the traffic in intoxicating drinks, and recommending all clergymen to use all legitimate means to obtain the suppression of the traffic. On the Effects of the recent Gold Discoveries. By J. CRAWFURD, F.R.S. On the Effects of the Influx of the Precious Metals which followed the Discovery of America. By J. CRAWFURD, F.R.S. The scope of Mr. Crawfurd's paper went to show that the depreciation in the value of the precious metals consequent on their influx after the discovery of the American mines, and the enhancement in the price of all the commodities they represented, so often insisted on by public writers, really never took place, any more than has the gold of California and Australia in our own times. He quoted, for the purpose, prices of several articles which are even now the same as before the discovery of America. this On the Social and Economical Influence of the new Gold. It is very important to arrive at some definite opinions on a subject which has been so much confused. The new gold has produced three series of effects. 1st. The quantity of the substance which has generally been adopted as the medium of exchange has been augmented. 2ndly. The new gold has influenced the wealth and the social condition of the countries in which it has been discovered. 3rdly. Great Britain has been affected by this change in the condition of one of her colonies. When it was found in 1851 that Australia and California would annually supply nearly £30,000,000 of gold, or, in other words, at least four times as much as all the gold mines in the world had yielded before, it was supposed that gold would rapidly decline in value to the extent of at least 25 per cent. The best authorities now agree that this decline has not as yet occurred. I will in the first place state the reasons which justify this supposition, and then explain in what manner the increased gold has been absorbed and its value been maintained. An inductive proof of a change in the value of gold requires data which cannot be obtained; for a comparison of general prices during the last ten years will afford no proof. Thus wheat is cheaper now than then. The value of gold, compared with wheat, has risen ; but how erroneous would it be thence to conclude that its general value had risen! Wheat has declined in price because it can be imported cheaply from other countries. On the other hand, the price of meat and dairy produce has of late much increased. This rise in price we know is partly due to the increasing wants of an advancing population, and especially to the increased consumption of a more numerous and better paid labouring class; but still we cannot say that the rise in the price of such produce has not been augmented by a fall in the general value of gold. Manifestly such comparisons avail nothing. The price of silver will afford the most important evidence. Silver and gold have been adopted as the general media of exchange, because they are liable to little change in their value. The value of these metals, like agricultural produce, is determined by the cost of obtaining them under the most unfavourable circumstances. Therefore their value is not altered, unless the current rate of profit in a country falls, and renders it profitable to work worse mines than those already worked; or, on the other hand, rises, and renders it no longer profitable to work these worse mines. Where commodities are employed in industrial occupations, the demand is variable; their value depends upon the demand; and this value constantly tends to obtain that position of stable equilibrium, when the supply equals the demand. But the quantity of gold and silver which is used for industrial purposes is very insignificant; and when a substance is used merely as a medium of exchange, the demand is always exactly equal to the supply, and the aggregate supply determining the value, and the value in a crossway regulating the supply, because the supply must give such a value as will cause the current rate of profit to be obtained in the worst mines. If, therefore, within the last ten years no new silver mines have been discovered, and the worse mines which were then worked are worked now, it affords strong evidence that nothing has occurred to affect the value of silver. As therefore the value of silver has remained stationary, if gold has declined in value 25 per cent., silver estimated in gold would have increased 25 per cent. in price. But it has not increased more than 2 per cent. This, I believe, affords the strongest evidence which can be obtained that the general value of gold has not yet declined. For some years up to 1840, our exports and imports had steadily increased. About that time the progress seemed to have ceased; for from 1840 to 1846, our exports remained at the stationary point of about £50,000,000 per annum. The fettered energy of the country seemed to have achieved its utmost. Free trade, and the repeal of the navigation laws, unloosed these fetters, and then the country started on a career of the most extraordinary progress. Our exports in nine years advanced from £50,000,000 to £115,000,000. In 1847, 475,000,000 pounds of cotton were imported; in 1856, more than 1000,000,000 pounds. This increased commerce stimulates the accumulation of capital, the wage-fund of the country is augmented, and wages, especially in the manufacturing districts, obtain a very decided rise. Free trade also cheapens many of the prime necessaries of life, and much more can therefore be spared for luxuries. No luxury is more prized by the poor than tea, and hence we find that while only 50,000,000 pounds of tea were imported in 1850, 86,000,000 pounds were imported in 1856. In Europe, during the last few years, there has been a great failure of the silk crop. China has been resorted to; and thus while only 1,700,000 pounds of silk were imported in 1850, more than 4,000,000 pounds were imported in each of the years 1854, 1855. The plodding industry of the Chinese enables them to supply this increased tea and silk; but surrounded with all the prejudices which have resulted from an isolation of 2000 years, we can induce them to take no useful commodities in return. They will be paid in silver, and we are thus obliged, in order to adjust the balance of trade, annually to export to the East £14,000,000 of silver. The silver coinage of France has to a great extent supplied this silver. £45,000,000 have been thus abstracted from her silver coinage in six years, from 1852-58. Gold has supplied its place. The absorption of so much gold in this way, has induced M. Chevalier, in his work on money, so admirably translated by Mr. Cobden, to describe France as a parachute, which has retarded the fall in the value of gold. France has supplied so much silver 1st. Because of the large amount of silver coinage she formerly possessed; and 2ndly. Because, unlike us, she has a double standard. Any slight variation in the fixed relative values of these two metals, will induce all payments to be made in one of these metals alone. Every extension of credit enables a certain amount of the circulating medium to be dispensed with; and it is probable that our vastly increased commerce and trade has required little, if any greater quantity of the circulating medium for all those transactions which may be described as wholesale; but, as I have before observed, a great increase of the national capital must have accompanied this commercial progress. The wage-fund is a component part of this capital. Wages are almost always paid in coin. This points to another way in which much of the new gold has been absorbed. The possibility of accounting for the absorption of the new supplies of gold, confirms the opinion that its value has not declined. But the fact that there has been no reduction, proves that gold would have greatly risen in value had not these supplies been forthcoming. The rise, too, would have been sudden, and therefore most serious. The conditions of every monied contract would be altered, the National Debt would be a more severe burden, and the extension of our commerce with the East would meet with the most difficult obstacle. When feudal Europe ripened into commercial Europe, the gold of America was discovered; and now that free trade has inaugurated a new social and commercial era, the gold of Australia and California is ready at hand to aid the progress. M. Chevalier asserts that henceforth the value of gold will rapidly decline at least 50 per cent. I regard this as a much too confident prophecy. The wage-fund of most countries is increasing, in some cases most rapidly. This will absorb a great deal of gold. Our commerce with the East is so anomalous, that prophecies seem to me to be useless. Every year there is a constantly greater quantity of Eastern produce required, and therefore this increased commerce will very soon absorb, instead of £14,000,000 of specie, £20,000,000, unless some great change in the habits of the Chinese induces them to consume more European commodities. On such a point who will hazard a prediction? Thus in a few years the East will absorb all the silver of the West. Shall we then be able to induce the Chinese to take gold as readily as they do now silver? There is another consideration which seems to me to be not sufficiently noticed. A change in the value of gold always generates a counteracting force, whose tendency is to restore the metal to its former value. Thus, suppose the supplies of gold continue to be the same as they are now, and that after a certain time gold declines in value. Gold-digging is not, I may say cannot be, more profitable than other employments. Directly a decline in the value of gold takes place, gold-digging will to many become less profitable than other labour. They will therefore cease to dig; this will diminish the aggregate supply of gold, and this diminution will tend to restore its value. I will now proceed to explain in what way the gold discoveries have assisted the advance of Australia. Production has three requisites: 1st. Appropriate natural agents. 2ndly. Labour to develope the resources of nature. 3rdly. This labour must be sustained by the results of previous labour, in other words, by capital. Long previous to 1848 the great natural resources of Australia were known, her vast tracts of fertile land had been explored, and her climate had been pronounced healthy. There was an overplus of labour in this country, and there was also much capital which would have been at once accumulated had an eligible investment pre sented itself. Little labour and capital were, however, applied in Australia, and her advance was slow. We know the discovery of gold changed all this; let us, then, seek the secret of the change. Previous to the gold discoveries, the chief field for the investment of capital was agriculture. In a young country farming operations meet with many obstacles. The stock and implements are expensive, no steady supply of labour can be ensured; and without the investment of a great deal of capital in roads, and other such works, produce can with difficulty be brought to market, and when brought, the demand is uncertain. The same remarks apply to manufactures, and also to general mining operations; for lead, copper, and iron mines require most expensive machinery, and a large cooperation of labour. This explains the usual slow progress of colonies, even when they offer the greatest industrial advantages. But as soon as it was heard that the gold was spread over a large breadth of the Australian continent, thousands flocked to share the spoil. They only took the simplest tools, they needed no capital, but just sufficient food to support them while labouring; and each one felt that he could work independently, and risk nothing more than his labour and his passage-money. Australia having thus suddenly obtained an abundance of manual labour, possessed two of the requisites of production; the third, capital, was quickly supplied to her. The savings of the gold-diggers formed a large capital, and English capital now flowed in even too broad a stream, to supply the wants of this labouring population. Australia for a time suffered much inconvenience, because gold-digging absorbed all her labour; not that more was earned in this pursuit than in others, but there is a magic spell in the name of gold. Gold-digging has the excitement of a lottery, and the chances of a lottery are always estimated at more than their true value. After a time, other pursuits absorbed a due proportion of labour, and thus Australia possessed every attribute of industrial success, and her future prosperity was established. About 1848, England was suffering from those ills which political economy attributes to over-population. Wages were becoming lower, and increasing population necessarily made food more expensive. Ireland had famine, and we had most deplorable distress. I have mentioned that the discovery of gold acted more powerfully than any other circumstance to induce a large emigration from Great Britain. Any decrease in the number of those who seek employment must cause a rise of wages, but emigration from a country like our own, effects even a more important advantage. I have before observed that the price of agricultural produce at any time must be such as will enable the least fertile land which is cultivated, to return the ordinary rate of profit. If, therefore, the wants of an advancing population cause more land to be brought into cultivation, the food which is thus raised involves a greater expenditure of labour and capital than that which was before produced, and thus as population advances, food becomes dearer. In a thickly peopled country, there are two obstacles to the material prosperity of the poor: 1st. The number of those competing for employment reduces wages. 2ndly. Food rises in value as it becomes necessary to strain the resources of the fertile land. Emigration, therefore, has increased not only the monied wages, but the real wages of our labourers. In some of our colonies, such as Canada, so little of the fertile land has been cultivated, that for some time the greater the immigration is to those parts, the more abundant will be the supply of cheap food which will be exported to this country. Emigration, therefore, as it were, adds a tract of fertile land to our own soil. Again, wages are remunerated from capital. The amount saved, or, in other words, the capital which is accumulated, is regulated by the returns which this capital will obtain. If population is stationary, and capital increases, wages will rise, and profits will fall; if, on the other hand, capital is stationary, and population increases, the rate of profit will fall. Can we affirm anything with certainty about the tendency of profits, when capital and population both increase? Any augmentation in the numbers of the labourers must exercise an influence to reduce wages, and therefore to raise profits; but there is another consideration. In a thickly peopled country like Great Britain, the returns of the Registrar-General plainly indicate that the rate of increase of population amongst the labouring class is determined by the expense of living, for the number of marriages |