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is the case with long-term money, in which considerations of the future are the dominant factor. Here we find that any investor of long-term money can command very high rates. Thus the rate of interest which must be paid by those issuing new bonds or debentures of sound quality averages over 7 per cent. The Crédit Foncier itself, standing second only to the Bank of France, in issuing 7 per cent. 500-franc bonds recently, repayable over fifty years at 1000 francs each, had to sell them at 480. Several of the issues of the French Government itself, of a middling term of currency, appear to yield, with redemption, over 9 per cent. free of tax. These high rates express the views of the industrial community as to the outlook. For, however indisputable may be the security offered, since all is payable in francs, all depends upon the future of the franc, and these high rates are only the measure of the uncertainty attaching to it. Thus, whichever way we look, the prospects of industry are marred and barred by the absence of stabilisation.

If, however, we extend our outlook beyond the immediate present, we reach the conclusion that, once France has fixed, as she can well do, the gold value of her currency, and has, by consequence, finally linked her price level to that of the world, she should be sure of an enhanced prosperity. We must, indeed, not allow ourselves to exaggerate the possibilities of that expansion, or to indulge in glowing dreams. For there are certain factors which in the future as in the past will regulate and restrict the industrial growth of France. Let us test that observation in the main spheres of her activity, coal-mining, metallurgy, agriculture, and textiles.

The relative scarcity and inferior quality of her coal measures has in the past preserved France from the triumphs or the terrors of the industrial revolution.' Indeed, during the hundred years 1815-1914, she had regularly to import year by year one-third of what she required for her own needs. Thus in 1913 her production was 41 million tons and her imports 22 million tons. This figure of 41 million tons should be compared with the 287 million tons produced by Great Britain, and the 279 million tons produced by Germany, in that year. Since the War importation has considerably increased

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in quantity. At any rate, in each of the years 1923 and 1924, France had to import about 31 million tons. In 1926, thanks to her wonderful reorganisation, she raised her production, it is true, to 52.5 million tons, and it is even thought likely that she may increase that figure to 55 million tons. But we must bear in mind that, as recently as 1924, the head of the Collieries Organisation of France expressed the opinion that, owing to the relatively small coal reserves, production should not be pushed beyond 50 million tons a year.

Proceeding upwards, as it were, in the scale of industry, we may observe similar restrictions to be assignable to the metallurgical future of France. In 1913 France and Alsace-Lorraine together produced 7 million tons of steel. In 1925 the two together produced 7,300,000 tons, a figure approximate to our own output. In 1926 they raised their production to about 8,200,000 tons of steel. An impressive total, indeed. Nevertheless, we must realise that this output will be subject in the future to certain limits. Coke is scarce. It is conceivable, indeed, that the French coal mines may be capable of furnishing 5 or 6 million tons of coke in the next few years. But the needs of France stand at the figure of at least 12 million tons in that item. She now obtains the balance required by means of deliveries under the Dawes scheme, and also by way of ordinary importations from Germany, the latter at very heavy cost to herself. The other restricting factor is that, the internal consuming capacity of France being limited to about 4 million tons of steel, she must export the balance produced. Unluckily for her, the world's productive capacity is increasing all the time, while its consumption, apart from that of the United States, is stationary. Hence the significance of the Crude Steel Agreement of October last, which limits French production to about 31 per cent. of about 29 million tons, i.e. not far from 9 million tons of output per year.

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If we turn from metallurgical to agricultural France, we may read into the future the same hopes qualified by similar considerations. The two main staples of French agriculture are wine and wheat. As regards the former, one would suppose that, aided by modern research and machinery, the wine production of France

would have increased in quantity and quality since the last century. Yet in the days of Napoleon III, France was producing more than now and furnishing a better quality. Indeed, in 1875 the output rose to 78 million hecto-litres. Since the War the average output is about 58 million hecto-litres, and it is to be feared that, now that the vast majority of the vines are grafted on American stocks so as to avoid the phylloxera, the quality may not be what it was formerly.

As regards wheat, France was self-supporting before 1860, and even during the next twenty years there were five years in which she had an exportable surplus. Her average production of wheat was 102 million quintals for the decade 1876-85. The average for the last four years, which included one exceptionally good and one inferior harvest, is 77 million quintals. Yet France probably needs each year 80 million quintals for food, 10 million for seed, and 4 for industrial purposes-a total of 94 million quintals. Thus, in spite of all the admiration which we may justifiably entertain for French agriculture, we must be careful not to exaggerate the prospects of France in this respect.

As regards the textile industry, the last in our inquiry, this has shown really marvellous progress since the War. The value of the textile exports has increased about eight times over that of 1913, as measured in francs, constituting about 40 per cent. of the entire exports of manufactured goods. Besides this, the French textile manufacturers have been gaining much more control of their own market, as indicated by the decline in imports. As against all this, we must realise that the weakness of those industries consists in their having to obtain the overwhelming bulk of their raw materials from gold standard countries. Cotton has to be brought from the United States, from India, and from Egypt; wool from Australia, British West Africa, Great Britain, and the Argentine; the silk of the natural silk trade from Japan, in chief. The cost of all these materials must be measured out according to the variations of the franc exchange.

Again, there are the wages problems multiplying in this field of production. When we say that these industries have benefited by a falling exchange, we

lity mean that the manufacturers, having sold for gold, have

paid their employees in currency which, though it may ning happen to purchase more than it ought at the moment, o 78 may at any time depreciate in purchasing power, and put is thus most unsafe to receive and still more dangerous dth to hold. The workers, having made this discovery, are graf pressing for a rise. Thus, at the end of December 1925, lore the total average earnings of the woollen workers were 25 francs a day. In the course of 1926 no less than four ting successive rises of wages had to be accorded to them, there with the result that 1926 ended with a rate of 30 francs pa day. Thus the oscillations of the franc constantly react, at long range and in an unforeseen manner, on the stability of industry.

And lastly, we have to remember in this connexion et how doubtful is the position in our day even of the fr most prosperous export trade. For example, the exports up of cotton fabrics from France to Germany amounted in of 1924 to over 20,000 tons, and of cotton yarn to over erta 8000 tons. In January 1925 the Alsace-Lorraine customs I regime with Germany came to an end, and the German tariff was increased 100 per cent. on the cotton imports, thus suddenly paralysing this important trade. The fact is that to-day all nations are endeavouring to produce textiles, and are therefore constantly tempted into impose tariffs upon their neighbours.

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Thus our examination of the reasons which have enabled industrial France to survive the unparalleled shocks of the War has led us, in the first place, to in estimate the remarkable solidity of her organisation. Next, the argument has shown that the chief danger still threatening that system arises from the quarter of public finance. However, there is, as indicated, a remedy available, which is well within the capacity of reasonable statesmanship. Once this danger has been Overcome, the outlook is favourable, though modified by Jindustrial factors of the character above defined.

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Art. 12.-UGO FOSCOLO.

1. Opere di Ugo Foscolo. 12 vols. Florence, 1850-90.
2. La Vita di Ugo Foscolo. By Giuseppe Chiarini.
Florence, 1910.

3. La Poesia di Ugo Foscolo. By Giuseppe Citanna.

Bari: Laterza, 1920.

4. Studi Foscoliani.

Laterza, 1921.

By Giuseppe Manacorda.

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5. Ugo Foscolo pensatore, critico, poeta. By E. Donadoni. Milan Sandron, 1910.

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ON Sept. 10, 1827, Ugo Foscolo died at Turnham Green, the first and the greatest, with the possible e exception of Mazzini, of the Italian men of letters who have taken refuge in these islands for political d reasons. The life of a poet is, as a rule, of little importance, except in so far as it affects his work; but this is not the case with Foscolo. His stormy career reflects the vicissitudes through which his country passed during the troubled years of the Napoleonic era more closely, and certainly more nobly, in spite of his faults, even vices, than that of almost any other Italian of equal eminence and activity in his day. The circles in which he moved in London, the terms on which t he was at once received in them, and the efforts of his friends to help him to the last, in spite of himself, are proof of the respect in which he was held. Few Italians have more right to exclaim with Baretti, English friends for me.'

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Foscolo's body was removed to S. Croce in Florence, of which he sings so nobly in 'Dei Sepolcri,' in 1871; but there is a local tradition in Chiswick that the tomb in the churchyard which Hudson Gurney raised for him, the last of many acts of generosity, is always warm. And the legend is certainly true symbolically, for few hearts have beaten more passionately than did that of the boy born at Zante in January 1778. His father was an Italian doctor who died young and left his family in poverty, his mother a Greek, and though he came to Venice as a child, his early years in the birthplace he was never to see again made upon his sensitive imagination an impression that always kept its fresh

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