few months prices were raised and profits became very large. These profits stimulating competition, however, it became necessary again at the beginning of 1889 to cut prices very decidedly in order to force rivals into the combination. For some two or three years after this prices and profits were kept, on the whole, fairly high, but in 1892 and 1893 a period of speculation led to very startling sudden changes in prices and corresponding changes in profits so far as sales were actually made. It was, of course, true that at many times the sales were very small.

While the chart attempts to show the prices without the rebates which were paid to wholesalers during the years 1890 to 1895, as well as the quoted market prices, one cannot be entirely sure of the accuracy of the chart in this regard, inasmuch as it has been impossible to secure with absolute certainty the dates of the various rebate changes. The chart is, however, not far out of the way, if at all.

Since the formation of the American Spirits Manufacturing Company in 1895, while the business has been somewhat more stable than during the last years of the Distilling and Cattle

Feeding Company, at no time until very lately has the combination had complete enough control of the market to be sure of steady prices and corresponding profits. It will be noticed, however, that for the last year and a half conditions have, on the whole, been much more favorable for the combination than before, it having more nearly secured the control of the market.

The chart as a whole would seem to show that the whiskey combinations have been able to hold prices and profits high only for short periods, inasmuch as they have almost invariably attempted to overreach and secure too high profits. They may hold prices stable for a few months, but when the changes do come they are much more radical and much more disturbing to the trade than would be the changesrelatively speaking slight-which would come under the régime of free competition.

According to the testimony of the President of the Distilling Company of America and one of its directors, the combination has finally adopted the policy of comparatively low profits, but invariably secure ones. It remains to be seen whether for the next two or three years it will

be able to carry out this policy, which, from the point of view of the combination, if it is managed on business principles and not for the purpose of speculation, is a wise one.

Petroleum *

In considering the chart showing the prices of crude and refined petroleum, attention should be called to the fact that figures for crude oil are given in bulk per gallon, the package not being included in the price; whereas those for refined

*The prices for crude and refined oil for export have been taken from the Derrick's Handbook on Petroleum, with the exception of those for the last few months, which have been furnished by the Standard Oil Company. The prices are in cents per gallon, including the cost of the barrel in the case of refined oils, excluding it in the case of crude oil. The prices of standard white illuminating oils at New York, Chicago, and Cincinnati have been furnished by the Standard Oil Company. Prices were given in bulk, and the amount of 24 cents per gallon was added for the cost of the barrel. This cost of the barrel would of course vary slightly; but the rule of 2 cents per gallon is one that is laid down in the Handbook of Petroleum, and is probably a fair general average. The prices of export oils at Bremen were taken from the Handbook for the earlier period, and for the last few months have been furnished by the Standard Oil Company. Figures are found in detail with margin reckoned in Report of Industrial Commission, Vol. I., p. 48.

oil are given per gallon, including the cost of the barrel. This is in accordance with the usual system of quoting these prices.

It will be observed that the price of export oil at Bremen, H, is regularly above the price, not merely of that same quality of oil in this country, but even of the higher grade standard white illuminating oil. It frequently happens, however, that the high grade illuminating oil is lower in price in New York than the poorer grade oil for export. For brief times, in 1893-4, the New York price for illuminating oil stood nearly as high as the Bremen price. The in

dependents claim that the very low price in Germany during those years resulted from an attempt to prevent their getting a foothold in the German market.

It will be noted that the prices of oils in New York, Chicago, and Cincinnati are charted on a scale twice as great as that of the main chart. This has been done in order to show the difference in prices between the three different markets under consideration. On the whole, the price of oil in New York stands somewhat above that in either of the other two cities, New York being somewhat further removed from the

oil fields; while the prices at Cincinnati are lowest. Although there is a general correspondence between the figures in these different markets, there are, nevertheless, special fluctuations in each market, which seem to be largely independent of fluctuations in the others.

The rapid and decisive fall in the price of refined oil in New York in 1896, it is claimed, was due to the competition of the Pure Oil Company. In March it put some wagons in New York selling oil. Prices dropped very rapidly until, as Mr. Lee, perhaps the leading opponent of the Standard Oil Company, says, they were below cost. Mr. Archbold of the Standard Oil Company makes a somewhat different statement of the figures, and points to the fact that the price of the crude oil was rapidly falling. The chart shows also that prices in both Chicago and Cincinnati fell in like proportion, if not even more rapidly, at the same time. The Pure Oil Com

pany began exporting oil to Germany in October, 1896, with apparently somewhat better facilities than the independents had had before, which may possibly account in part for the rather rapid fall of oil in Germany at about that time, although crude oil was also falling.